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Ultimately, whether the market’s four-week bet proves accurate will depend on geopolitical developments in the coming days. Struyven is closely watching for signals regarding the conflict’s length, noting that sweeping goals like “regime change” from the U.S. administration could indicate a protracted war, while narrower military goals or the rise of a reformist leader in Iran could offer an off-ramp for a shorter conflict. For now, Wall Street is pricing in a month of turmoil, hoping the physical flow of oil resumes before prices are forced into the triple digits.

YouTube TV offers a 7-day free trial. It is then $59.99 per month for the first two months. That will get you most of the way through the 2025-26 college basketball season. After the introductory rate, the rate is $82.99 per month starting in the third month.

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