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This made intuitive sense. Temperatures had been rising across the globe for nearly a century. The more heat and energy there is in the atmosphere, the more turbulent it ought to be. But the climate tends to frustrate expectations. If temperatures at the poles rise more than temperatures at the tropics, for instance, the difference between them will decrease, and the jet stream could slow down. Nevertheless, on average, turbulence seemed to be rising everywhere. The surprise was how much. Between 1958 and 2001, the weather data suggested, clear-air turbulence increased between forty and ninety per cent over Europe and North America. The British atmospheric scientist Paul Williams found similar increases when he looked at data from satellites, weather balloons, and aircraft from 1979 to 2020. If carbon-dioxide emissions continue apace, Williams estimates, moderate or greater clear-air turbulence could rise by as much as a hundred and seventy per cent on flight routes over the North Atlantic by the middle of the century. Turbulence from storms and other sources could also nearly double, a study co-authored by Bob Sharman found.

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瑞士再保险公司的研究表明保险公司近些年面临成本提升过快的难题,诉讼周期更长、律师费与专家费更高。而AI黑盒的广泛引用进一步放大了这一点,抬高了非标争议、算法审计、取证复杂度与专家证人的费用。于是每一次理赔都可能是一场关于边界与准则的司法辩论,保险公司的要先付出多少不可逆的辩护与审计成本。